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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd